SBY PRESIDENCY
With the presidential vote around the corner, incumbent Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is seemingly on course for a landslide re-election, thanks to his popularity and clean image as well as lack of credible challengers, analysts agree."[He] is still having the biggest chance to win," Burhanuddin Muhtadi, a senior researcher at the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), told IslamOnline.net.
Indonesia, described as the world's third-largest democracy after India and the US, votes to polls on Wednesday, July 8, to elect a president.
It will be only the second direct presidential election since the fall of the Suharto dictatorship in 1998.
Opinion polls show that the incumbent president, known by his SBY initials, will comfortably win re-election and a new five-year term.
The former army general is being challenged by his vice-president Jusuf Kalla, the chairman of the Golkar party, and his predecessor Megawati Sukarnoputri, the leader of the Democratic Party of Struggle.
Yudhoyono, 59, came to power in 2004 after a landslide victory over his current rival Megawati to become the country's first directly elected head of state.
He hopes to win a clear majority and avoid a run-off in September.
His Democratic Party (DA) won the biggest vote share in the general elections and now has 150 seats in the 560-seat House of Representative.
Yudhoyono is backed by Islamic parties which have together some 160 seats in the legislature, which makes his coalition in control of more than 50 percent of the parliament.
If he wins, SBY will be the first president to serve consecutive terms in Indonesia’s "Reformasi" era that began with the fall of Suharto.
Indonesia is the world's most populous Muslim nation with a population of 220 million.
Weak Contenders
Analysts believe Yudhoyono's winning chances are boosted by his own rivals.
"His style of leadership that is always polite and avoiding confrontation has contributed to his success," Fachry Ali, a senior political analyst, told IOL.
He cites Yudhoyono’s tremendous successes politically and economically over the past 5 years.
"Yudhoyono has strong personality to lead and to attract the people."
Megawati, the daughter of Indonesia's independence hero Sukarno, has teamed up with special forces ex-commander and head of the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) Prabowo Subianto in the election.
The pair focused on attracting swing and economy-concerned voters, but their campaign, according to opinion polls, is not wining many people’s hearts and minds.
The other contender who is making a long-shot bid is Yudhoyono's incumbent vice president.
He is teaming up with former military chief Wiranto.
Kalla has been indicted by UN prosecutors for crimes against humanity in East Timor, which won independence from Indonesia in 1999.
The rich businessman has come in the third place in all polls, achieving only single digits. But recently his support has seen a slight upturn.
"The increase is only one percent but showing a shift of voters," notes Burhanuddin, the senior researcher.
He attributes this to the increasing public appearance of the wives of Kalla and Wiranto in their hijab.
"But his target is how to make the election extending to the second round."
Islamists Future
Analysts believe that while the 2009 race is already decided, it’s the 2014 elections that would bring new faces to the political scene.
"Yudhoyono, Megawati, Kalla and Wiranto are going to be finished in next five year," says Fachry.
He sees the vote would be more promising for Islamic parties, especially the Islamic Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).
"The president’s Democratic Party would be also dying at that time."
According to Fachry, strong ideological parties like the PKS and charismatic individuals who have strong financial support like Prabowo would be leading the political arena in five years.
PKS, he added, seems warming up by copycatting the ruling Democratic Party in preparing for the 2014 race.
Prabowo, the husband of Suharto's daughter, was nominated by his party to run in the 2009 election.
Although he is having strong independent support, Prabowo, dubbed the "golden boy" of Indonesia’s future, decided to team up with Megawati as vice president.
"For Prabowo, his target is for 2014," notes Fachry.
(By Dandy Koswaraputra IOL Correspondent-www.islamonline.net)
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